Where We Are Now: July 27, 2020
Kitchen Sink & The Path Forward
4:46AM PST
Team –
Over the past four years we have been tested as a team in more ways than we would like to imagine. We have experienced fires, mudslides, excessive snow in Tahoe, multiple brand changes in LA, a horrible plane crash, COVID-19, an appropriate peak and intensity surrounding racial injustice, and a huge technology upgrade, only to be combined with each of our own personal and family challenges. We are just short of the “kitchen sink” being thrown-in.
Industry voices say we do not like change. Likely true, most humans don’t. But don’t ever bet against this team meeting change head on, confronting the issues and raising our game accordingly.
This team makes me so very proud! I cannot imagine a team performing better under adversity than our professional staff and amazing real estate professionals up and down the state of California.
July 2020 will set an all-time record for our closings in California. This budget data is not a post-COVID relook, it’s our budget we approved in November 2019. Our team is crushing it!
On Monday, August 3 at 9:00AM, we will resume the Path Forward. We will return to a twice monthly cadence. The Path Forward will be both live and recorded so you may review at your convenience.
As a preview, and my expectation for 2H 2020, I see three significant macroeconomic variables driving our real estate markets. They are:
- Federal Stimulus Package: Congress and the “Fed” (Federal Reserve Bank) currently own the US economy. The combination of the current State & Federal unemployment stimulus expires July 31. The entire reason our newly unemployed citizens can meet rent and mortgage obligations are these unemployment benefits. In my view, Congress owns this part of the economy until 3 to 6 months after a vaccine is actively in the “market.” I do not see these unemployment benefits changing anytime soon.
- Election: We get volatility and anxiety in our economy and equity markets every time there is a meaningful election. This one coming up is no different. Whether you want change or stability, we will get volatility and anxiety until it’s over – this is the way it has always happened.
- Vaccine: A successful vaccine changes everything, once it is in the market and deployed. It seems our government is aggressively investing in the ultimate manufacturing and distribution of a successful vaccine. I do not believe we have seen a possible accelerated delivery like this in any other health crisis. Once the vaccine is on the market, the COVID home buying surge could substantially relax.
You and I do not control any of the above variables (except voting and wearing a mask). We are simply challenged to react, respond and give advice to our clients accordingly.
July and August will be record months for us. I admire your tenacity, resilience, perseverance, and commitment to your clients. Our team is amazing!
See you Monday, August 3 at 9:00 AM for the Path Forward.
This is Where We Are Now.
Thanks!
Mark
Mark A McLaughlin