Where We Are Now: Nov. 30, 2020
Welcome to the Sprint!
6:25 AM PST
Over the long weekend, I trust you relaxed, enjoyed a small circle of loved ones and got outside in our amazing California weather. Simply a magical weekend!
Many businesses are today focused on the sprint to year end 2020. Finishing up current initiatives and winding down for the holidays.
I look at the sprint differently. A chance to sprint to the start of 2021 and come in hot! A chance to be more prepared than any one of our competitors. We each have a choice in our December sprint. Is it year end 2020 or Q1 2021?
Sunday afternoon, I read a Bank of America Securities US Economic Viewpoint focused on the US housing market and I listened to the Goldman Sachs weekly briefing for our macro-economy.
The Bank of America Securities writing was very real estate focused.
Bank of America Viewpoint
- US home sales at +5.5 million in 2021
- US home price appreciation in 2021 at 4 percent
- Fed to maintain interest rate policy for 3 years serving mortgages in the +/- 3 percent range
- Key Drivers are:
- Q1 2021 CARES stimulus minimum at $750B – $1T
- 2021 job creation following 100 million COVID vaccines “in market.”
The Goldman Sachs podcast was focused on the US election results and the COVID vaccine.
Goldman Sachs Viewpoint
- Strong confidence that the early December 2020 Electoral College results will cause Trump to activate “normal” POTUS and related transitions.
- 75 percent degree of confidence that Georgia runoff will go Republican creating governmental balance vs. Blue Wave.
- FDA vaccine approvals expected in early December for Pfizer and Moderna.
- Significant confidence in the US supply chain to deliver vaccine doses complete with needles and syringes.
- December 2020 to February 2021 doses to be in the tens of millions per month.
- 1H 2021 doses in the US could reach to 200 million and create herd immunity.
While we bridge from current state to Spring 2021, use this sprint to ready your business for 2021. I don’t see us returning to our previous normal, but I do see a day in the next seven months that we can gather again as a team, collaborate face-to-face and celebrate each other’s victories and successes.
I miss our meetings and celebrations more than you can imagine. I am prepared for the 2021 sprint.
Call on me if I can help with your sprint!
This is Where We Are Now.
Mark A McLaughlin